Knocking at the College Door - Insights on WICHE's new publication

Every few years, WICHE (WCET’s parent organization) publishes a pivotal analysis of high school graduate projections for the United States. This analysis, presented in WICHE’s Knocking at the College Door report, tells the story of shifting demographics, evolving opportunities, and the need to adapt to meet students wherever they are.

Of key interest this year – the most recent publication is the first Knocking report published post-COVID-19 pandemic. It takes into account new workforce demands and challenges of equity and access in higher education.

Today, we’re excited to give you a quick overview of the new report, plus some thoughts we had during WICHE’s webcast announcing the release, which took place on December 11, 2024.

First, some resources:

• Knocking at the College Door website – wiche.edu/knocking/
• Incredible interactive data visualizations from the team at WICHE where you can explore data behind the key findings (such as profiles by geographic location, regional variation under national trends, a COVID-19 impact visualization, and more) – wiche.edu/knocking/data-visualizations/

PRIMARY FINDINGS!

This year’s Knocking at the College Door reports five primary findings – here are our thoughts on each of those. See the report for more details on each of these.

Finding One

The total number of high school graduates is expected to peak in 2025 and then projected to decline through 2041.

In 2025, the total number of high school graduates is projected to be 3.9 million students yet the number of graduates is projected to decrease to 3.37 million by 2041.

This trend is primarily driven by a decrease in birth and fertility rates that closely parallels the projected decrease in high school graduates.

High school retention and completion rates, as measured through graduation rates, are projected to be stable.

Finding Two:

The number of underrepresented graduates who identify as Hispanic or Multiracial is expected to grow.

The number of White high school graduates is projected to decrease by 26% by 2041, while the number of Black graduates is projected to decline by 22%. Hispanic graduates are projected to increase by 16%, and Multiracial graduates are projected to increase by 68%.

Students identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native graduates are projected to decline by 41%, from 30,000 in 2023 down to 18,000 in 2041. Additionally, the number of Asian/Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander graduates is projected to decrease by 8% – 10%.

Finding Three:

The number of high school graduates is projected to decrease in the West, Midwest, and Northeast at a steeper rate than previously projected. The number of high school graduates is projected to increase in the South.

While the number of high school graduates in the South is projected to increase from 1.4 million to 1.5 million by 2041, Western graduates are projected to decrease from 934,000 to 745,000, Midwestern graduates from 768,000 to 639,000, and Northeastern graduates from 612,000 to 518,000.

Finding Four:

There are steeper declines in enrollment in grades K through 12 then projected before the COVID-19 pandemic.

New projections estimate 750,000 fewer high school graduates, or a 1.5% decrease, between 2024 and 2037.

Finding Five:

Implications of Shifts in Student Demographics

While the “enrollment cliff” is an often-used metaphor – the report’s authors advise that the reality will be a slower and steadier shift of student demographics, which will have important implications on higher education, workforce training, and state and federal government.

WHAT CAN HIGHER EDUCATION DO

As stated in the report, “Despite these worrying trends, a peak then decline in the number of high school graduates need not spell doom for institutions across the country…” (Knocking, 66).

The report’s authors were careful to emphasize that higher education has some agency despite the projected decline in enrollment.

They suggested several evidence-based practices that could lead to improved higher education enrollment and graduation rates. For example, a 5% increase in the college-going rate for recent high school graduates could begin to offset the projected college enrollment decline.

• Enhanced student advising and financial aid programs like the CUNY ASAP program and Montana 10.
• Early admissions programs.
• Informing students of their financial aid packages earlier in the admissions process.
• Prior learning assessment that provides learners with experiential credit for adult students.
• “Z Degree” programs that leverage open educational resources to provide zero learning material cost degrees.
• Basic needs programs and benefit navigator programs like the Oregon program.

Final Thoughts

In addition to the report and its interactive dashboards, WICHE is also planning to analyze high school graduation data for the American Territories and Freely Associated States and examine the impact of gender on the projections. Additionally, a webinar series on evidence-based interventions is being planned for 2025. Make sure to check the Knocking at the College Door website for more information on future analysis and events.

All of us at WCET congratulate the team behind this year’s Knocking at the College Door report – as always you’ve delivered the higher education community vital information to help us all better understand how we can best support students moving forward.