Author: Russ Poulin

Thank you to everyone who participated in our call for elearning predictions for 2012.  We received quite a variety of opinions on what we can expect for the coming year. There seemed to be plenty of worries about what others will do to us rather than for us.  The impacts of competencies and badges are on the minds of several of us.

By far, my favorite submission was from Catherine Kelley of Fairleigh Dickinson University.   It is far too true:

There will be a new gadget released that will take the consumer market by storm. People will line up for hours in order to get one. A small university that nobody ever heard of will provide the device to its entire freshman class and thus gain national publicity. Higher education analysts will herald this new device as the thing we have all been waiting for, that will serve to engage students, deepen learning, improve enrollment, and reduce cost. Important thinkers will argue that we need to use this device in our teaching in order to reach the younger generation, who now expect it. Technology companies will figure out clever ways to integrate their product with the new device. The device will be the hot raffle item at Educause. (ref The Onion – sorry, I couldn’t help myself. http://www.theonion.com/articles/new-device-desirable-old-device-undesirable,2862/)

Been there.  Love it!

I tried my best to make a compilation of the predictions.  Below I have them listed.  For those with more than one submission, I put the number in parentheses:

• A greater moved to competency-based education, including attention to the developing concept of offering many more “badges” at the sub-degree level (5).
• Adoption of open educational resources will expand greatly and there will be additional tension with proprietary providers (3).
• New elearning-based colleges will emerge (2).
• Accreditation will face additional attacks and adverse consequences (2).
• A significant number of colleges will shift to the new LMS products announced last year or yet-to-be-announced in 2012 (2).
• There will be more federal and state legislation of distance education.
• ‘Student learning rights’ will be debated.
• There will be a noticeable increase in the use of ‘star’ faculty as a marketing tool to recruit students.
• Mobile apps will improve, including tactile and smelling sensors.
• 2012 will be the year of the hybrid course.
• A state will make an institution an “example case” in state authorization.
• There will be more doubts raised about the worth of higher education.
• Most colleges will struggle mightily to address the question of affordability.

Here are the full predictions with their authors noted:

In 2012 there will be three or more new entrants into the low-cost degree segment (sim. WGU), with either competency based degrees or other efficiency-oriented methods of development and delivery (sim. StraighterLine).

Richard Hezel
President & CEO
Hezel Associates

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In 2012 we will see the vast majority of new learning platform wins for online programs to go to multi-tenant cloud providers.

Phil Hill
Executive Vice President
Delta Initiative, Inc.

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I foresee many universities developing their own versions and brands of “competency-based education” as a response to the growth of WGU to additional states. This will be healthy for higher education as the nature of what constitutes “learning” will be re-examined and re-assessed.

Marie A. Cini
Vice President & Dean
The Undergraduate School
University of Maryland University College Adelphi, MD

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I have two major predictions for 2012:

(1) Mobile smartphones and tablets will incorporate more sensory tactile and augmented reality screen features for learning as well as the introduction of sensory odors/smell features for teaching and learning.

“NASA isn’t just good for bringing you awesome space pictures; they can now help you figure out, via your iPhone, if that really is gas you’re smelling. Their chemical-sniffing device is about the size of a postage stamp and plugs into the iPhone to collect and transmit data from its sensor. It uses a “sample jet” to detect chemicals like ammonia, chlorine gas, and methane, even in low concentration. The device’s multiple-channel silicon-based sensing chip consists of 64 nanosensors; after analyzing a sample it can send data via a telephone network or Wi-Fi.”

(2) Someone will develop a “converter app” that will allow downloading of any app (Apple or Android) on any device.

Robbie K. Melton
Associate Vice Chancellor
Academic Affairs
Tennessee Board of Regents

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2012 will be known as the year of the hybrid course, as increasing numbers of students achieve learning objectives through a combination of online assignments and in-class discussions.  Many hybrid courses will decrease class utilization by one-third (going to a twice-weekly class format).  Yet, the definition of the credit hour will remain based primarily on seat time (what I would have learned in thrice-weekly lectures).

Chuck Wight
Assoc. VP for Academic Affairs
University of Utah

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I think that competency-based education will be of more interest as well as the idea that learners cannot be held back by the cohorts that they are placed within traditional educational models.  Students will become more aware of other models of learning that either can accelerate them when they attain mastery or decelerate them when they are meeting up against obstacles or finding that the learning takes longer than expected.

Alice Stefaniak
Learning Resource Specialist
Western Governors University

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Here are my predictions – some serious, some tongue in cheek. Some are way out on a limb but I think plausible.

1. The Federal government will come out with at least one new rule or regulation that will make us gnash our collective teeth for at least six months. This rule or regulation will demonstrate considerable ignorance about distance learning, the Internet, or both. If implemented, it will costs us a lot of money. WCET will rally the troops to fight this rule or regulation, and it will be temporarily stalled. (oh wait, this already happened!! But I have no doubt at all that it could happen again.)
2. There will be at least one major scandal involving the State Authorization issue. I.e., there will be a high-profile court case (or at least a major news story) involving a university that has not obtained appropriate authorization. Examples Will Be Made. Laggards will finally get the point.
3. Another major scandal will involve accreditation. A high-profile institution will be put on probation by its accrediting agency, or a regional accrediting agency will lose its charter, or both.
4. The big technology story of 2012 will be the ongoing fight between Open Stuff and Stuff that is Clamped Firmly Shut. This story is not new, but it will escalate dramatically in 2012. At least one major newspaper (possible) or other substantial publishing entity (more likely) will shut down for good, which will fuel this discussion even more. The discussion will get more & more ugly. There will be serious and ever more clever attempts to shut down the free exchange of ideas on the Internet. (sounds like SOPA, which I know is just about dead – but there is more coming – I have no doubt of that at all.) I’m a little afraid about how this will play out. I see it as the Titans escaping from the Titanic and defending their leaky lifeboats with heavy artillery. (but they’re still going down.)
5. A major higher-ed technology company will be discovered to be in a state of financial crisis far deeper than anybody suspected, because of pressure from open source competitors. See prediction #4, above – it’s the same thing, really.
6. There will be a major scandal having to do with privacy or security involving Facebook. (a hack or data leak or something like it.) As a result of this scandal, people will almost entirely stop using Facebook.

Catherine L. Kelley
Associate Provost for Educational Resources and Assessment
Fairleigh Dickinson University

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–Learner Analytics will become increasingly important in E-learning to measure student success, Faculty participation and to develop new methods of teaching at a distance.

–Student Services online- As E-learning divisions and schools as part of our institutions grow, new and innovative solutions need to be created to have the same services as our face to face. Library-(do we need a Digital Librarian?) Tutoring, advisement, linking to student clubs and the list goes on.

Patricia D. Fenn
Executive Director of E-Learning
Ocean County College

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This may fall more into the category of my hope rather than my prediction, but here goes:

2012 will see recognition by colleges and universities that badges and certifications, where they may be created from  the reverse engineering of a degree into courses and then into specific, measurable learning objectives of the courses, does not threaten the integrity of a degree, undermine the contributions of curriculum committees, or devalue  the expertise of faculty.  Instead, the ability to measure and recognize (e.g. badges and certifications) the accomplishment of learning objectives within courses can be a way to motivate students, provide for a more flexible path towards degree attainment, create more revenue opportunities with stand-alone certificate modules, reinvent the course as a more cost effective way to attain a degree than the cobbling together of certificates, and (for all these reasons)  better demonstrate to employers and the public of the worth of a college degree.

Deb Adair
Quality Matters

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From my vantage point as a “retiree”, I do not feel qualified to make any predictions about the ins and outs of evolving technology but I do have the advantage of being sufficiently removed from the “action” to see the broader landscape…here goes.

Because it is an election year, I think the general higher education landscape will be relatively quiet in 2012.  But in 2013, I predict some long standing issues will begin to be addressed.  No one is going to do anything but make “noise” this year but NEXT year, some of the real frustrations about the state of higher education will finally draw action.  By that I mean, there will be consequences.  What are the key issues which might be targeted in 2013?

Questions about what is higher education supposed to do for young people?  (Increasingly, the business community says graduates are not prepared to work, have little understanding of the business culture and in fact, have to be “retooled” by the community itself.)

The issue of accreditation…..it may become irrelevant as new procedures are developed which gain legitimacy over the “old ways”.

The growth of open source learning and what to do about it…that could really explode NEXT year.

I realize you are asking about 2012…but please share my comments…cause I think we are in a “talk but hold” situation over the coming months.

Fran Kelly
Retired (Yet Active) Sage

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I would like to add the following 2012 predictions to your list:

• 1-2 community college systems will announce their plans to launch an open course project similar to Washington’s Open Course Library
• Desire2Learn, SoftChalk, and Instructure will be sold  at some point this year
• More institutions will require students to use e-textbooks or print them at a reduced cost

Kelvin Bentley
Senior Strategy Consultant, Expanded Presence
Blackboard, Inc

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1. Legislators will begin to share “model policy” templates to direct online learning development in higher education as they have been in K12.
2. The issues of “student learning rights” will get more discussion in postsecondary forums driven by the K12 efforts in California and the 10 Elements of the Digital Learning Now agenda.
3. Online providers will begin to recruit “star” faculty who will draw students into their programs.
4. An online provider will begin marketing to adjunct faculty the ability to start their own storefront for offering courses creating an online university that is a collection of independent contract educators.
5. Emphasis on establishing explicit, measurable competencies for college courses will increase.
6. New assessment tools that use technology to measure verbal input, context in writing and media in e-portfolios will see greater use and acceptance.

Myk Garn
Director, Educational Technology
Southern Regional Education Board

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Finally, I thought I would take a shot at it:

• A few accredited institutions will aggressively pursue creating and offering competency-based “badges” for subsections of their curriculum.
• A few institutions will make real headway in addressing the ever-growing question of the affordability of higher education.  Most will talk about the issue, but make no real strides at improvement.

If you have comments on any of these prognostications or you wish to add your own, please do so in the comment section.

Let’s see what happens in the coming year and review the results in 2013.  Have a great year.

Russ Poulin
Deputy Director, Research & Analysis
WCET – WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies
rpoulin@wiche.edu

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In the first week of 2011, WCET’s Frontiers blog posted predictions solicited from leaders of our organization and leaders in community of technology-mediated education.  We asked them to predict something that will happen in 2011 about teaching, learning, technology, business of elearning policy, regulations, student behavior, or other related items.

Now, it’s a year later.  The crystal balls for some of our prognosticators must have been highly polished as they did quite well.  In this post we’ll review some of the predictions and ask you to make your own predictions for 2012.

In descending order, her are the top six predictions that were made:

#6 Budget Pressures Will Change What We Do

Linda Thor, Chancellor, Foothill-De Anza Community College District, and former WCET Executive Committee Member predicted that: “the intersection of two pressures–budget reductions and the completion agenda–will finally lead higher education faculty and staff to collaborate across institutions to scale best practices and reduce unnecessary duplication in elearning.”

Rhonda Epper, Assistant Provost, Colorado Community College System, Chair of the WCET Executive Committee predicted that:  “As institutional budgets remain constrained in 2011, policy leaders will increasingly look to online learning as a solution to providing access to greater numbers of students.  At the same time, we will see more backlash and questioning of the quality of online learning as a result of the fallout from improprieties in the for-profit sector, as well as from traditional faculty who are: a) concerned about job security, or b) genuinely concerned with the unchecked growth and quality of online learning.”

David Cillay, Executive Director, Center for Distance and Professional Education, Washington State University predicted that “as budgets get tighter, colleges and universities will look to online and continuing education as a solution for this shortfall. This will result in closer alignment of online and continuing education units with the general university.”

It probably was not difficult to foresee that the recession and related budget woes would have a significant impact on elearning, but each of these experts envisioned different results. Whether it was Congressional hearings, the Department of Education, faculty, or the press, we heard plenty of questions about distance education.  David Cillay’s prediction about the alignment of online and continuing education units fits in with the Managing Online Education survey results that most institutions are undergoing restructuring of these activities.

#5 State Authorization Regulation’s Impact is Different than What We Originally Thought

Bruce Chaloux, Director, Student Access Programs and Services and Director, SREB’s Electronic Campus, Southern Regional Education Board predicted that “the recent hullabaloo over the federal regulations concerning out-of-state approval/licensure will not have the kind of impact that many are fearing. Creative strategies for out-of-state licensure/approval that focus on reciprocity across state and regional boundaries will win out. A workable framework will be established upon which to build such a process.”

Remember that this was written late in 2010 and we were still trying to figure out the meaning of ‘state authorization’  Despite what some may say (or hope), this issue has not gone away. Authorization did have an impact in 2011, but maybe not what we expected. Certainly, both Bruce and I were consumed by this issue at times last year and we jointly attended numerous meetings about it. We are both greatly involved in the current efforts to create reciprocity agreements.  Unfortunately, such agreements are not easy and will take some time.  In any case…even if the federal regulation is on hold or repealed, the states still expect you to follow their laws. State authorization isn’t going away.  More to come on it…and other regulations…in 2012.

#4 Mobile Technologies will Have a Growing Educational Impact

Ellen Wagner, WCET’s Executive Director, also predicted that: “Mobile learning in all of its rich and nuanced forms will finally become an obvious, self-evident solution for learning because we are finally focusing on meeting the needs of learners who are mobile.”

Rhonda Epper predicted that: “eBooks will continue to gain traction as students become increasingly comfortable with the digital format.”

In 2011, mobile versions of course management systems were released, ipads and tablet computers exploded have captured the market, and even grandmas and grandpas are getting  ebook readers or smartphones.   While most institutions are still trying to figure out how to implement mobile learning, the foundation has been laid for even more use of mobile devices in education.

#3 “Openness” was Everywhere in 2011

David Porter, Executive Director, BCcampus predicted that “all the good work that has happened on the “open frontier” supported initially by individual leaders and special projects will begin to coalesce around a federation of practitioners who *will* agree on a core set of principles and practices to make “open” a sustainable mainstream model of practice.”

Cable Green, Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons (formerly Director of eLearning & Open Education, Washington State Board for Community & Technical Colleges) hoped that K-20 educational institutions make “open licensing on all publicly funded content” the default… rather than the exception.

Scott Leslie, Client Services Manager, BCcampus and “Raving Educational Technologist” predicted that 2011 will be the year of the OpenTextbook. Textbook costs are out of sight, the economy is not going to get significantly better, and institutions and students are going to need to look to any place they can cut costs. This is prime, and unlike other OER projects in the past, there is a real and pressing internal economic need and motivator to make this happen…2011 will represent the year when this approach “crosses the chasm” – not only will we see many more new OpenTextbook projects, but we will see new authoring platforms and strategies that include campus bookstores and libraries.

Paul Stacey, yet another BCcampus colleague, wrote a spectacular review of last year as “The Year of Open.”  In that blog piece, he chronicles the many advances in open content, OER, MOOC, open licensing, open textbooks, and many more.  To continue the forward momentum of the open movement, Creative Commons hired Cable Green as their full-time educational evangelist. The U.S. Department of Labor announced the first recipients of its massive TAACCCT grants creating open courses and opponents moved to kill it.  On the open textbook front, the idea of cutting students costs by replacing materials from publishers gained steam.  In the last couple weeks, legislators in California and Washington announced their intention to introduce legislation supporting online texts in selected subjects.

#2 Analytics Will be the Buzz Phrase of the Year

Ellen Wagner, WCET’s Executive Director, predicted that “Analytics will be the buzz phrase of the year. Much in the way that term ‘Web 2.0’ became a cliché of the past five years, the word ‘analytics’ will become a cliché for this next five.”

Phil Ice, Director of Course Design, Research and Development, American Public University System predicted that “Over the last eighteen months there has been a great deal of talk about predictive analytics for elearning. While there are some decent products in the market, the fact is that there are none that are truly predictive. Rather current, commercially available applications rely on basic descriptive or inferential techniques. By the end of this year I think that will change. The first few, truly predictive products will come to market. They will likely be far from perfect, but they will give practitioners and administrators a taste of what is possible.”

It helps that Ellen and Phil had a major project for WCET in mind.  The first phase of that project was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the results will be released in the coming months.  With the release of the film ‘Moneyball’ in 2011, the Chronicle, the Horizon Report, and others helped to make this a buzz phrase known to more than just the data geeks.  It wasn’t just Brad Pitt that made statistics sexy. As to Phil’s prediction on products, several sessions at the WCET Annual Conference featured the work of institutions demonstrating their analytic tools and how they convert the results into actionable information.

#1 Khan Academy will Adopt Alternative Credentialing (and Others Follow)

Myk Garn, Director, Educational Technology, Southern Regional Education Board and Co-leader of WCET’s Forging the Future Workshop predicted that: “The Khan Academy will begin awarding certificates of completion for its lessons and will enable learners to assemble lessons into course and programs of their own design. Plans will be announced for “micro-credentials” awarded for course sets.  Because lessons remain free, no federal support will be needed, so Kahn announces it will not seek accreditation but will rely on “market validation” of learner-designed credentials.  The Gates Foundation doubles its support.”

Indeed, the Khan Academy, joined the 2011-craze of offering “badges” to those who successfully master content.  Not part of the prediction was the move by Mozilla and the MacArthur Foundation to create Open Badges.  While the Gates Foundation, which previously contributed $2M, did not double its support, the O’Sullivan Foundation gave $5M in November “to grow the faculty of the Khan Academy; extend the content to include crowd-sourced contributions; and to develop curricula for a blended physical and virtual academic experience.”

Congratulations to Myk Garn for the #1 prediction for 2011.  The choice was made by WCET staff using the time-honored “we know it when we see it” criteria.  As a result, Dr. Garn will receive the first “WCET Seeing the Future” badge and all the rights, privileges, and honors appertaining thereto.  Good thing we have him co-leading our Forging the Future workshop again in 2012.

Make Your Prediction for 2012

You are invited to join in the fun for 2012.  Predict something that will happen this year regarding teaching, learning, technology, business of e-learning policy, regulations, student behavior, or other related items. You can submit your entry as a comment to this blog post or by sending an email to me at rpoulin@wiche.edu with the subject “2012 Prediction” by January 18  January 20.

Polish your crystal ball and join the fun.

Happy New Year from all of us at WCET.

Russ Poulin
Deputy Director, Research & Analysis
WCET – WICHE Cooperative for Educational Technologies
rpoulin@wiche.edu

Support our work.  Join WCET.

Photo Credit:  Morgue File – http://morguefile.com/archive/display/745798